The OECD Shuffles Its Economic Projections Worldwide

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  • Title: The OECD Shuffles Its Economic Projections Worldwide | What It Means for Business

    Published: 30 March 2026

    Coverage: Sunday 22 March 2026, 12:01 AM to Sunday 29 March 2026, 12:00 PM London time

    ---

    [AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]

    Welcome. Each week from London, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days, and we analyze what it means for business.

    ---

    [LAST WEEK'S KEY ECONOMIC EVENT]

    The OECD is the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. It is a body of 38 member countries that together produce 60 percent of the global economy.

    Several times a year, it publishes a report called the Economic Outlook. The latest interim report was published on Thursday with its Economic projections for 2026.

    This report covers two projected indicators: The GDP growth rate and the inflation rate.

    On growth, the global headline number is 2.9 percent for 2026, identical to what the OECD projected in December. But that identical number hides a real deterioration.

    By late February, technology investment was accelerating, and Trump tariffs had fallen. Conditions improved so much that the OECD was preparing to revise growth upward to 3.2 percent.

    Then, on 28 February, the United States and Israel struck Iran, and Iran responded by restricting the Strait of Hormuz. As a consequence, oil, gas, and fertilizer prices surged. That shock erased the entire expected revision.

    The positive forces are still present, and they are the reason growth did not fall below 2.9 percent. But instead of producing a stronger economy, they are now offsetting the damage from the energy shock. The world lost 0.3 percentage of growth that was expected to arrive.

    On inflation, the picture is worse. In December, the OECD expected inflation to reach 2.8 percent and then return to 2 percent by mid-2027, the level that central banks consider stable. Last week, the OECD raised its projection to 4.0 percent and pushed the timeline to stability to 2028.

    All of these projections rest on the assumption that the energy disruption is temporary, and that oil, gas, and fertilizer prices begin declining from mid-2026 as the conflict de-escalates.

    If that assumption holds, the projections are achievable. But the OECD itself published a downside scenario in which the disruption persists, and in that scenario the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan would be pushed into recession.

    ---

    [WHAT IT MEANS FOR BUSINESS]

    So, what does this mean for business?

    The overall impact of this report is highly negative for most businesses worldwide, with a narrow set of exceptions in economies and sectors that were upgraded or left unaffected.

    To understand why, you need to understand what the OECD Economic Outlook is used for.

    It is not just a forecast, it is the reference that banks use to price loans, that insurers use to set premiums, and that export credit agencies use to assess country risk. Before Thursday, there was no institutional anchor. Now there is, and every institution that prices risk will adjust to it.

    That adjustment hits businesses directly. When the OECD downgrades a country, banks in that country see weaker revenue prospects and higher costs for their borrowers, meaning the probability of repayment goes down. So banks tighten lending by raising rates, demanding more collateral, and in some cases, simply lending less.

    The downgrade does not just describe a worse environment. It triggers a repricing of credit that makes the environment worse in practice.

    Now, where that repricing hits hardest depends on who got downgraded and by how much.

    The euro area was cut from 1.2 percent to 0.8 percent, and within it, Germany, France, and Italy face the sharpest pressure because they run Europe's most energy-intensive industrial bases. The United Kingdom took the largest G7 downgrade, falling from 1.2 percent to 0.7 percent, with inflation doubled from 2.5 to 4.0 percent.

    For businesses in those economies, revenues barely grow while costs accelerate from both energy and credit at the same time.

    In Asia, the damage runs through energy dependence. Japan imports nearly all of its energy, and over 40 percent of China's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. And the OECD warned that financial conditions have tightened most sharply across the region, hitting South Korea and India alongside.

    On the other side, a narrow group stands to gain.

    The United States was the only major economy revised upward, from 1.7 to 2.0 percent, because it produces its own energy. That upgrade means US businesses will access capital on better terms than their European or Asian competitors.

    Canada and Brazil are partially insulated as energy exporters.

    And within sectors, North American fertilizer producers hold the strongest position. They are selling into a disrupted global market while their own costs stay anchored to domestic prices far below what competitors in Europe or Asia pay.

    ---

    [WHAT TO DO NOW]

    So, what to do now?

    For those in economies that were downgraded, the report's most important contribution is not the projection itself. It is the assumption underneath it.

    The OECD assumes the disruption is temporary and that energy prices ease from mid-2026.

    If your business plan is built on that assumption, you are aligned with the institutional consensus, but you are fully exposed to the downside. The defensive move is to stress-test your operating model against the OECD's own worse case for two consecutive quarters.

    If your business cannot survive that, the time to secure credit lines is now, while lenders are still pricing the base case into their terms.

    Once the downgrade flows through to corporate lending, which takes weeks not months, the terms will be worse and the capital harder to access.

    For those in economies that were upgraded or in sectors benefiting from the disruption, the report confirms your pricing power but also tells you when the consensus expects it to end. The OECD projects energy prices declining from mid-2026, which means the margin advantage you hold today has a visible expiration date.

    The offensive move is to lock in revenue at current prices through short-term contracts, while resisting the temptation to invest in capacity that only pays for itself at wartime pricing.

    So, the OECD report is now the baseline that every lender, insurer, and counterparty will use over the coming months. You need to adapt to it now.

    ---

    [AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]

    Thank you for listening to this episode of What It Means for Business. Have a good week.

In each episode of What It Means for Business podcast, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyze it for business leaders.

Today’s topic: The OECD Shuffles Its Economic Projections Worldwide.

With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 30 March 2026

The views expressed in this episode are those of Glenshore and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to take any particular action. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Glenshore makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and disclaims any liability for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates and is used strictly for informational and identification purposes only. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part without the express written consent of Glenshore.

© 2026 Glenshore Limited. All Rights Reserved.

The Energy Escalation Freezes Global Monetary Policy

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  • The Energy Escalation Freezes Global Monetary Policy | What It Means for Business podcast

    Published: 23 March 2026 | Coverage: 15 March 11:59 AM to 22 March 12:00 PM London time

    [AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]

    Welcome. Each week from London, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days, and we analyze what it means for business.

     [LAST WEEK’S KEY ECONOMIC EVENT]

     Last week, the war in the Gulf escalated dramatically. Both sides started targeting energy infrastructure, and the damage spread far beyond Iran and Israel.

     On Wednesday, Israel struck South Pars, the world's largest natural gas field. Iran depends on it for 70% of its domestic gas supply. The strikes knocked out a significant share of production and shut down Iran's gas exports entirely. Because Iraq depends on Iranian pipelines, it lost a third of its electricity in a single day.

     Iran retaliated within hours. It struck Ras Laffan in Qatar, the largest LNG export facility on earth, and also hit Saudi refineries and energy infrastructure in the UAE. By Thursday, neutral countries were taking direct damage.

     As a consequence, markets moved significantly. Brent crude briefly touched $119 before closing the week around $106, a 45% increase in three weeks. European gas prices have doubled over the same period. And the disruption compounds what was already building. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, a third of globally traded fertilizer and nearly half of all traded sulfur were already trapped. Now production facilities on both sides of the Gulf are being destroyed. Petrochemical inputs, plastics, packaging, are all under pressure, right as the Northern Hemisphere enters planting season. This is not just an energy shock. It is a broad supply chain shock that reaches into food, manufacturing, and consumer goods.

     [REACTIONS FROM POLICY MAKERS]

     In this context, central banks reacted. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve froze interest rates. The next day, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan all did the same. Four major central banks all halted the rate cuts that businesses had been counting on for months.

     Here is why that matters. Before the war, inflation was falling toward the 2% target. Central banks were actively cutting. The Fed had cut by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. The ECB and the Bank of England had been easing. 2026 business plans were built on the promise of cheaper money.

     Last week's strikes shattered that trajectory. When energy prices surge and supply chains seize up, it costs more to produce and transport almost everything, from factory power to freight to fertilizer to food. That is how a supply shock turns into broad inflation.

     The standard response to inflation is raising interest rates, which makes borrowing expensive and slows consumer spending. When inflation comes from people spending too much, this works. But when it comes from a supply shock, higher rates do not rebuild gas fields or get fertilizer onto ships. They just crush businesses that are already under pressure.

     So why not cut rates to support the economy instead? Because central banks tried exactly that in 2021. Supply disruptions pushed prices higher, central banks assumed it was temporary, and they were wrong. Inflation became entrenched. Every major central banker has promised not to repeat that mistake.

     That is the trap. They cannot cut without risking permanent inflation. They cannot hike without crushing growth. The Fed raised its inflation forecast to 2.7%. The ECB raised its to 2.6% and slashed growth to 0.9%. The Bank of England said the balance has shifted toward a longer hold, or even a hike. Markets that were pricing in rate cuts just weeks ago are now betting on hikes. The era of cheaper money is over.

     [WHAT IT MEANS FOR BUSINESS]

    So, what does this mean for business?

     The overall impact is highly negative.

     Companies are now caught between forces that reinforce each other. Energy costs are surging, input costs across the supply chain are climbing, and borrowing costs are staying high or going higher.

     The most exposed businesses sit in energy-importing economies. Europe is the clearest case. The eurozone imports nearly all of its oil and gas, and its manufacturers depend heavily on petrochemical inputs that are now disrupted. Profit margins are shrinking, demand is weakening, and financing is getting more expensive. Any business carrying floating-rate debt is watching its repayments climb in real time.

     On the other side, producers outside the Gulf are capturing a windfall.

    The United States is the world's largest oil producer, produces most of its own fertilizer, and does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz. US domestic oil is trading at an eight-dollar discount to global benchmarks, giving American industry a major cost advantage.

    [WHAT TO DO]

    Business leaders need to act on three fronts.

    First, do not plan around this being temporary. The strikes last week destroyed physical production capacity. Ras Laffan repairs alone could take up to five years. This is not a price spike that fades when tensions ease. If your 2026 plans assume energy and input costs coming back down, rewrite them now.

    Second, map your supply chain for Gulf exposure. Many businesses do not realize how much of what they buy depends on materials that transit the Strait of Hormuz or are produced in the Gulf. This goes beyond fuel. It includes fertilizers, petrochemical derivatives, plastics, and packaging.

    Third, revisit every assumption you made about borrowing costs. Across the world, rate cuts that seemed certain four weeks ago are now off the table. In some economies, markets are pricing in hikes.

    If you have investment decisions, acquisitions, or expansion plans that were built on the assumption of cheaper financing, the math has changed. Rerun it.

    [AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]

    Thank you for listening to this episode of What It Means For Business. Have a good week.

In each episode of What It Means for Business podcast, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyze it for business leaders.

Today’s topic: The Energy Escalation Freezes Global Monetary Policy.

With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 23 March 2026

The views expressed in this episode are those of Glenshore and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to take any particular action. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Glenshore makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and disclaims any liability for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organisation mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates and is used strictly for informational and identification purposes only. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part without the express written consent of Glenshore.

© 2026 Glenshore Limited. All Rights Reserved.

IEA Releases 400m Oil Barrels from Strategic Reserves

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  • [PART 1]

     This past Wednesday, the global energy board shifted. Operating through the International Energy Agency, thirty two governments unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of crude oil from their strategic stockpiles. To put that number in perspective, the world consumes roughly 100 million barrels a day. Releasing 400 million barrels represents one third of all government holdings. It is a historic, massive injection of supply.

     To understand the stakes of this release, we must look at the context of the physical market. Since late February, military strikes have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway normally handles twenty percent of the world daily oil supply. Insurers cancelled coverage, and shipping stopped. By last Sunday, the market was panicking about a massive physical shortage, and the price of Brent crude surged to $119 a barrel.

     The coordinated reserve release on Wednesday was designed to break that panic. Physically, the reserves are highly effective. The United States alone can pump over four million barrels a day into the market from its salt caverns.

     But the agency was not acting alone. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates had already activated massive bypass pipelines built specifically for a Strait closure. These systems push eight and a half million barrels of oil straight to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.

     Between the massive strategic reserves and the Gulf bypass pipelines, the immediate physical shortage of crude oil was bridged. The world proved it could temporarily replace the lost volume. But make no mistake, this is a patch, not a permanent cure. If the Strait stays closed for a year, those reserves will deplete, and the bypass pipelines cannot mathematically replace the twenty million barrels a day that normally transit the Gulf.

     [PART 2]

     So what does this historic release mean for business. The overall impact of this specific event is highly positive. The intervention successfully averted a catastrophic physical supply chain collapse and effectively capped a runaway price spiral.

     We saw this positive reality price in by the end of the week. The immediate reaction to the Wednesday release was exactly what governments wanted. Prices dropped to $90 on the announcement. But by Friday, the price bounced back to $103, and it has stayed there.

    The price bounced because the market realized the difference between a temporary volume fix and systemic friction. The strategic reserves and the pipelines solved the immediate volume problem, which is a massive win. But the friction of moving that oil is now immense. Iran has absolutely no incentive to reopen the Strait. Insurers have no mathematical reason to underwrite vessels entering a warzone. And the bypass pipelines are running at maximum capacity, making them prime military targets. If one of those bypass pipelines is actually struck, that $103 price ceiling shatters instantly. Furthermore, loading tankers in the Red Sea is slower and vastly more expensive than normal operations. The $103 price tag is the market pricing in this structural friction, while thanking the reserves for preventing $150.

     However, this new $103 baseline still acts as a heavy inflationary pressure on the business environment. Higher crude means higher diesel. Diesel moves everything by road and sea, so freight costs rise across every single physical supply chain. Petroleum is also the foundational feedstock for plastics, packaging, and industrial chemicals.

     But the most severe shock is in agriculture. This is where the pipeline bypass completely fails the supply chain. The Middle East is a massive manufacturer of agricultural fertilizers. While they can pump liquid oil through a pipeline to escape the blockade, they cannot pump solid fertilizer. Those physical cargo ships are completely trapped. Roughly one third of global fertilizer trade is physically stuck behind the Strait. Urea prices have already surged massively. If you are in food production, retail, or farming, the physical fertilizer shortage of today becomes a massive food cost increase within three to six months.

     Within this new environment, there are distinct geographic and sectoral winners and losers. Energy importing economies with high Gulf dependence carry the heaviest burden. Japan buys seventy percent of its oil from this region. Europe relies heavily on Gulf jet fuel. Their industries are now paying significant premiums that will severely compress their margins.

     On the flip side, there are clear beneficiaries. If you produce oil outside the Middle East, in places like the United States, Norway, Brazil, or Canada, your assets just jumped forty percent in value. If you operate alternative logistics, like railways or shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope, you now possess the most valuable infrastructure in the world.

     Business leaders must act on the distinction between a temporary physical buffer and a permanent market cost. First, if you have energy procurement contracts coming up for renewal, lock them in at the current forward curve. Do not wait for a dip that no actor has an incentive to deliver. Second, if you depend on Gulf sourced crude, gas, or agricultural chemicals, begin qualifying alternative suppliers today. Finally, if you sell products with energy intensive inputs, adjust pricing now. Absorbing $103 oil without repricing erodes margin in a way that is very difficult to recover.

In each episode, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyse what it means for business.

In this episode: IEA Releases 400m Oil Barrels from Strategic Reserves. With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 16 March 2026

The views expressed in this episode are those of Glenshore and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to take any particular action. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Glenshore makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and disclaims any liability for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organisation mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates and is used strictly for informational and identification purposes only. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part without the express written consent of Glenshore.

© 2026 Glenshore Limited. All Rights Reserved.

Strait of Hormuz Shuts Down

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  • [PART 1]

    On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran. Iran retaliated, including with attacks across the Gulf countries, and then declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman, through which about 20% of the world's oil and natural gas moves every single day. Iran threatened to destroy any vessel that attempted to cross, and over the course of the week, at least six vessels were struck.

    Now in normal times, every commercial vessel crossing a high-risk waterway carries something called war risk insurance, which covers damage or loss caused by military action. Without it, the financial exposure on a single loaded tanker runs into hundreds of millions of dollars. Within days of Iran's declaration, the major insurers cancelled war risk coverage for the strait, and once the insurance disappeared, no shipowner could justify sailing anymore. Every major container line suspended operations, and traffic collapsed by 90%.

    Then Iranian drone strikes hit Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, which is the largest export facility in the world for LNG. LNG stands for liquefied natural gas, it is natural gas cooled to liquid form so it can be shipped by tanker. Qatar supplies roughly 20% of the world's LNG, and QatarEnergy, the state energy company, halted production and declared force majeure on its delivery contracts. Force majeure is a legal clause that releases a company from its obligations when extraordinary circumstances make performance impossible. So that supply went offline.

    Two chains converged last week. The insurance withdrawal closed the strait to oil, the military strikes shut down Qatar's gas, and both fed into energy prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil traded in London, was trading around $73 before the strikes began, and at Friday's close it stood at $93. That is its largest weekly gain since the pandemic crash of 2020.

    [PART 2]

    The impact on businesses is negative and immediate, and the transmission channel is energy cost.

    Oil at $93 feeds directly into diesel, electricity, heating and industrial gas. Now the heaviest exposure sits in Asia, where about 84% of crude oil that normally passes through the Strait is bound. Japan, South Korea, India and China all depend on it. Europe faces a different pressure through gas, because Qatar supplies 12 to 14% of Europe's LNG imports, and that flow has now stopped. But energy markets are global, so a supply shock in the Gulf raises prices everywhere.

    And this is a supply shock, not a demand surge. The oil exists, it is sitting in tankers anchored on either side of a strait that no one can cross. Prices are rising, but not because economies are growing. The global economy was already softening before this crisis, the US for example lost 92,000 jobs in February, far below what forecasters expected, and an economy that is already weakening has no cushion to absorb a sudden rise in costs.

    Now if the crisis resolves quickly, the damage is manageable, energy prices fall back and shipping will resume. But if the strait stays closed for weeks, the economy moves toward what economists call stagflation. Stagflation is when inflation keeps rising while economic growth stalls or contracts, and here is why it is so dangerous.

    In a normal slowdown, central banks cut interest rates, lower rates make borrowing cheaper, cheaper borrowing means businesses invest and consumers spend, and that spending restarts growth. But that tool only works when prices are stable. When inflation is rising because of a supply shock, more spending does not produce more oil, it just pushes prices higher, so central banks cannot cut. But if they hold rates to contain inflation, borrowing stays expensive, and meanwhile customers squeezed by higher energy bills spend less. Revenues weaken while costs rise.

    The policy that fights inflation deepens the slowdown. The policy that fights the slowdown accelerates inflation.

    Now a shipping disruption is reversible, the day the strait reopens the oil flows again. But here is the deeper risk. When tankers cannot leave the Gulf, the oil that keeps being pumped has nowhere to go, it fills up storage tanks on shore.

    Iraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day because its tanks are full, Kuwait has started cutting too. And once you

    shut down an oil well, you cannot just turn it back on, it takes months to restart. So the longer the strait stays

    closed, the less oil exists at all, and at that point the disruption is no longer about shipping, it is about supply that has disappeared.

In each episode, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyze what it means for business.

In this episode: Strait of Hormuz Shuts Down. With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 9 March 2026

The views expressed in this episode are those of Glenshore and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to take any particular action. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Glenshore makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and disclaims any liability for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organisation mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates and is used strictly for informational and identification purposes only. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part without the express written consent of Glenshore.

© 2026 Glenshore Limited. All Rights Reserved.

US and Israel Strike Iran

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  • [PART 1]

    Throughout February, the United States and Iran had been holding indirect talks through Oman over Iran's uranium enrichment programme. On Thursday 26 February, both sides met in Geneva for a third round. The Omani mediator reported significant progress. Both sides agreed to continue in Vienna the following week.

    However, on Saturday 28 February, the United States and Israel launched a joint military attack on Iran. They struck military installations, nuclear facilities, and government compounds across the country, killing their Supreme Leader. He is Iran's highest political and religious authority, above the president and all other institutions. President Trump stated the objective was regime change.

    Iran responded within hours, firing missiles at US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, at targets inside Israel, and at civilian infrastructure across the Gulf. Multiple regional states closed their airspace. Dubai shut both its airports. Emirates and Qatar Airways grounded their fleets.

    At Friday's close, before the strikes, Brent crude stood at just over $72 a barrel.

    [PART 2]

    So what does this mean for business? The impact is negative for most, and the uncertainty is extreme.

    Start from the geography. Iran sits on the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 20% of the world's oil flows through that waterway every day. Missiles are now flying across it. So when oil markets reopen, they will price the risk that this flow could be interrupted. And that means a sharp move upward in energy costs.

    Now here is why that matters beyond the price of a barrel.

    Higher oil costs travel through supply chains. They raise the cost of shipping, of running factories, of producing anything that requires heat, transport, or chemical inputs. They also raise the cost of fertilizer, which means food prices follow.

    And because all of this pushes inflation higher, central banks lose the ability to cut interest rates. Here is why. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, cheaper borrowing means more spending, and more spending when prices are already climbing makes inflation worse. So central banks are stuck. And that means borrowing costs stay elevated at the same time that input costs are rising.

    On top of that, conflict of this scale drives capital toward the US dollar as a safe haven. That strengthens the dollar and weakens every other currency. So if you run a European manufacturer or you export from India or Southeast Asia, your costs are rising in dollar terms while your revenue is shrinking when converted back. That is a double compression on margins.

    Now, who is most exposed?

    If your operations depend on Gulf infrastructure, you have an immediate problem. Dubai as a cargo hub, Gulf-based aviation, construction, hospitality, professional services, all of that is frozen, and there is no reopening date.

    Beyond the Gulf, the most vulnerable economies are net energy importers with no domestic cushion. Europe and Japan above all. If you run an energy-intensive business in those regions, chemicals, steel, glass, food processing, your cost base is about to shift.

    Not everyone loses.

    If you are an oil producer outside the conflict zone, in Norway, Brazil, Canada, or the United States, the product you sell just became dramatically more valuable. And if you operate a logistics hub in Singapore or Istanbul, you are about to absorb rerouted traffic from the Gulf.

    Here is the question that matters most right now. How long does this last.

    In 1979, the Iranian Revolution doubled oil prices and triggered a global recession that lasted years. The Iran-Iraq war lasted eight. Wars in this region, once they start, tend to last far longer than anyone initially expects. And this one, with regime change as its stated objective, has every characteristic of following that pattern.

    So the instinct will be to wait. To absorb the cost increases, hold off on decisions, and hope the situation resolves quickly. But every week of absorbing higher input costs without acting erodes margin. So the businesses that come through this in the best shape will be the ones that plan now as if the disruption is structural. Because if it turns out to be shorter, you adjust easily. But if you assumed short and it lasts, the damage compounds.

In each episode, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyze what it means for business.

In this episode: US and Israel Strike Iran. With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 2 March 2026

The views expressed in this episode are those of Glenshore and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to take any particular action. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Glenshore makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and disclaims any liability for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organisation mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates and is used strictly for informational and identification purposes only. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part without the express written consent of Glenshore.

© 2026 Glenshore Limited. All Rights Reserved.

US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs

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  • [PART 1]

    Since early 2025, the Trump administration had imposed tariffs on imports from nearly every country in the world. The legal basis was a 1977 law called IEEPA, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which allows the US president to regulate commerce during a declared national emergency. Under this authority, the administration applied different tariff rates to different countries. Chinese goods carried effective rates above 30%. Canadian and Mexican goods that did not qualify for duty-free treatment under the North American trade agreement paid 25% or more. The EU negotiated a cap at 15%. More than a dozen other countries signed individual trade deals setting their own specific rates and exemptions. By January 2026, IEEPA tariffs accounted for roughly half of all US customs revenue.

    On Friday 20 February, the US Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that IEEPA does not give the president the authority to impose tariffs. The power to tax imports, the Court held, belongs to Congress. The ruling invalidated the entire IEEPA tariff structure in a single decision.

    Within hours, President Trump signed a proclamation imposing a new 10% global tariff under a different law, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This law has never been used before. It allows the president to impose tariffs to address balance-of-payments problems, but it is capped at 15% and expires after 150 days, on 24 July 2026, unless Congress votes to extend it. On Saturday 21 February, Trump announced his intention to raise the rate to 15%.

    [PART 2]

    So what does this mean for business?

    For most importers, the immediate effect is lower costs, which is obviously positive. But the ruling creates a much larger problem underneath. The cost of the uncertainty this ruling creates outweighs the benefit of the rate reduction.

    Start from who gains right now.

    If you import from China into the United States, you were paying above 30%. You now pay 10%. That is a direct reduction in the cost of every container you bring in. It means you can either widen your margins or lower your prices to take market share. The same applies if you source from Canada or Mexico outside the duty-free categories, where rates dropped from 25% to 10%.

    Now, who loses.

    If you are a US manufacturer who competed against Chinese imports, the tariff that kept your pricing competitive just dropped from above 30% to 10%. Your foreign competitor's landed cost fell dramatically. And they can ramp volume at the new rate faster than you can cut your own production costs.

    If you spent the past year restructuring your supply chain around the old IEEPA rates, those investments are stranded. Moving a supplier from China to Vietnam because Vietnam had a lower IEEPA rate made sense under the old architecture. It no longer does, because the rate is now flat. The factories you onboarded, the contracts you signed, the compliance infrastructure you built, all of it was calibrated to a system that no longer exists. That cost does not come back when the tariff changes. It sits on your books.

    And there is a problem that goes beyond importers and domestic producers.

    Under IEEPA, the administration negotiated more than a dozen trade deals with specific countries. Those deals set individual rates, product exemptions, and caps tailored to each trading relationship. The new Section 122 tariff ignores all of them. It is one flat rate applied to everyone. So if you are an EU exporter who relied on specific product exemptions negotiated in the EU-US framework, those exemptions no longer apply. The EU has already paused ratification of the deal. India has paused its own.

    On top of that, roughly $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs were collected over the past year. The Court's ruling means they were collected without legal authority. If you paid those tariffs, you may be entitled to a refund. Over a thousand businesses had already filed claims before the ruling. But the administration has signalled it will resist, and the refund process has not been defined.

    Now here is the question that matters most.

    Section 122 expires on 24 July 2026. The administration has said it will open investigations under Section 301, a US trade law that allows tariffs in response to unfair foreign trade practices. But that process requires formal proceedings, consultations, and public comment periods. It takes months. So the current 10% rate has a legal shelf life of 150 days, and its replacement does not yet exist.

    Here is what to take away.

    In the past twelve months, the US tariff system has been fundamentally rewritten three times. Each time, companies treated the new rates as stable and rebuilt around them. Each time, the structure was replaced. Tariff policy in the United States is no longer a fixed input in your cost model. It is a volatile one. And you manage volatile inputs differently. Concretely, that means maintaining active supplier relationships in more than one jurisdiction so you can shift volume without months of onboarding. It means keeping contracts shorter with flexibility clauses rather than locking in terms built around a single rate. And it means pricing your products with enough margin to absorb tariff movement rather than passing through every shift to your customers. The companies that will manage this period best are the ones that treat tariff exposure the way they already treat currency exposure: as a risk to be managed continuously, not a number to be optimized once.

In each episode, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyze what it means for business.

In this episode: US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs. With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 23 February 2026

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