Subscribe on YouTube

Title: The OECD Shuffles Its Economic Projections Worldwide | What It Means for Business
Published: 30 March 2026
Coverage: Sunday 22 March 2026, 12:01 AM to Sunday 29 March 2026, 12:00 PM London time
---
[AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]
Welcome. Each week from London, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days, and we analyze what it means for business.
---
[LAST WEEK'S KEY ECONOMIC EVENT]
The OECD is the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. It is a body of 38 member countries that together produce 60 percent of the global economy.
Several times a year, it publishes a report called the Economic Outlook. The latest interim report was published on Thursday with its Economic projections for 2026.
This report covers two projected indicators: The GDP growth rate and the inflation rate.
On growth, the global headline number is 2.9 percent for 2026, identical to what the OECD projected in December. But that identical number hides a real deterioration.
By late February, technology investment was accelerating, and Trump tariffs had fallen. Conditions improved so much that the OECD was preparing to revise growth upward to 3.2 percent.
Then, on 28 February, the United States and Israel struck Iran, and Iran responded by restricting the Strait of Hormuz. As a consequence, oil, gas, and fertilizer prices surged. That shock erased the entire expected revision.
The positive forces are still present, and they are the reason growth did not fall below 2.9 percent. But instead of producing a stronger economy, they are now offsetting the damage from the energy shock. The world lost 0.3 percentage of growth that was expected to arrive.
On inflation, the picture is worse. In December, the OECD expected inflation to reach 2.8 percent and then return to 2 percent by mid-2027, the level that central banks consider stable. Last week, the OECD raised its projection to 4.0 percent and pushed the timeline to stability to 2028.
All of these projections rest on the assumption that the energy disruption is temporary, and that oil, gas, and fertilizer prices begin declining from mid-2026 as the conflict de-escalates.
If that assumption holds, the projections are achievable. But the OECD itself published a downside scenario in which the disruption persists, and in that scenario the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan would be pushed into recession.
---
[WHAT IT MEANS FOR BUSINESS]
So, what does this mean for business?
The overall impact of this report is highly negative for most businesses worldwide, with a narrow set of exceptions in economies and sectors that were upgraded or left unaffected.
To understand why, you need to understand what the OECD Economic Outlook is used for.
It is not just a forecast, it is the reference that banks use to price loans, that insurers use to set premiums, and that export credit agencies use to assess country risk. Before Thursday, there was no institutional anchor. Now there is, and every institution that prices risk will adjust to it.
That adjustment hits businesses directly. When the OECD downgrades a country, banks in that country see weaker revenue prospects and higher costs for their borrowers, meaning the probability of repayment goes down. So banks tighten lending by raising rates, demanding more collateral, and in some cases, simply lending less.
The downgrade does not just describe a worse environment. It triggers a repricing of credit that makes the environment worse in practice.
Now, where that repricing hits hardest depends on who got downgraded and by how much.
The euro area was cut from 1.2 percent to 0.8 percent, and within it, Germany, France, and Italy face the sharpest pressure because they run Europe's most energy-intensive industrial bases. The United Kingdom took the largest G7 downgrade, falling from 1.2 percent to 0.7 percent, with inflation doubled from 2.5 to 4.0 percent.
For businesses in those economies, revenues barely grow while costs accelerate from both energy and credit at the same time.
In Asia, the damage runs through energy dependence. Japan imports nearly all of its energy, and over 40 percent of China's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. And the OECD warned that financial conditions have tightened most sharply across the region, hitting South Korea and India alongside.
On the other side, a narrow group stands to gain.
The United States was the only major economy revised upward, from 1.7 to 2.0 percent, because it produces its own energy. That upgrade means US businesses will access capital on better terms than their European or Asian competitors.
Canada and Brazil are partially insulated as energy exporters.
And within sectors, North American fertilizer producers hold the strongest position. They are selling into a disrupted global market while their own costs stay anchored to domestic prices far below what competitors in Europe or Asia pay.
---
[WHAT TO DO NOW]
So, what to do now?
For those in economies that were downgraded, the report's most important contribution is not the projection itself. It is the assumption underneath it.
The OECD assumes the disruption is temporary and that energy prices ease from mid-2026.
If your business plan is built on that assumption, you are aligned with the institutional consensus, but you are fully exposed to the downside. The defensive move is to stress-test your operating model against the OECD's own worse case for two consecutive quarters.
If your business cannot survive that, the time to secure credit lines is now, while lenders are still pricing the base case into their terms.
Once the downgrade flows through to corporate lending, which takes weeks not months, the terms will be worse and the capital harder to access.
For those in economies that were upgraded or in sectors benefiting from the disruption, the report confirms your pricing power but also tells you when the consensus expects it to end. The OECD projects energy prices declining from mid-2026, which means the margin advantage you hold today has a visible expiration date.
The offensive move is to lock in revenue at current prices through short-term contracts, while resisting the temptation to invest in capacity that only pays for itself at wartime pricing.
So, the OECD report is now the baseline that every lender, insurer, and counterparty will use over the coming months. You need to adapt to it now.
---
[AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]
Thank you for listening to this episode of What It Means for Business. Have a good week.

In each episode of What It Means for Business podcast, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyze it for business leaders.

Today’s topic: The OECD Shuffles Its Economic Projections Worldwide.

With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 30 March 2026

The views expressed in this episode are those of Glenshore and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to take any particular action. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Glenshore makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and disclaims any liability for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates and is used strictly for informational and identification purposes only. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part without the express written consent of Glenshore.