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The Iran War Ceasefire | What It Means for Business
Published: 13 April 2026
Coverage Period: Sunday 5 April 2026, 00:01 AM to Sunday 12 April 2026, 12:00 PM London time
Category: Geopolitical
[INTRO: AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]
Welcome. Once a week, we break down the most consequential global economic event, and we analyze what it means for business.
[LAST WEEK'S KEY ECONOMIC EVENT]
This week, a ceasefire was announced. Markets exploded higher. Oil crashed. We saw the first direct US and Iran talks in decades. Then, those talks collapsed, and the US President declared a naval blockade.
All of that happened in just six days.
And yet, after all of that whiplash, the business environment is exactly where it was on Monday morning last week. Let me walk you through what happened.
On Tuesday evening, the US and Iran agreed to pause the fighting for two weeks in a deal brokered by Pakistan. The central commitment was that Iran would allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow passage handles a fifth of the world's oil every single day, along with massive volumes of global container shipping, petrochemicals, aluminum, and fertilizers. Since the war began six weeks ago, Iran has kept it largely shut. That single disruption has been fracturing supply chains and driving up costs across multiple global industries.
So when the ceasefire hit the news, traders did not wait. Brent crude had been sitting above $113 a barrel on Monday. By Wednesday morning, it was down to $93. That is a $20 drop in a single day, marking the sharpest decline since 2020. The S&P 500 jumped two and a half percent, the Dow gained over 1,300 points, and airlines surged up to 12%. The market was pricing in one thing: the war is ending, the strait is reopening, and cheap oil is coming back.
That optimism lasted about two days.
By Thursday, it became painfully obvious that the strait was not actually reopening. In the first 48 hours after the ceasefire, fewer than a dozen ships made it through. To put that in context, more than 120 vessels used to cross every single day before the war.
Iran's military was still requiring each ship to get individual permission. Reports indicated they were charging transit fees as high as two million dollars per ship, payable in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency. On top of that, Iran had laid mines in the waterway during the conflict, and reports suggested it had lost track of some of them. Shipping companies had no guidance and no insurance for the crossing. Over 600 vessels remained completely stuck inside the Gulf. On Thursday, the head of Abu Dhabi's state oil company put it bluntly: the strait is not open, and access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled.
Then came Saturday. Vice President JD Vance flew to Islamabad for face-to-face talks. Iran sent its parliamentary speaker and foreign minister. With Pakistan mediating, they negotiated for 21 straight hours.
On Sunday morning, Vance walked out. There was no deal, and both sides blamed each other.
According to the delegations, the talks covered the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, war reparations, sanctions, and the broader regional conflict including Lebanon. The US said the sticking point was Iran's refusal to commit to not developing nuclear weapons. Iran said the US had made excessive demands and failed to earn its trust. On the strait itself, the gap remained wide. Iran insisted on maintaining sovereign control over the waterway, while the US demanded completely free and unrestricted passage.
And then things escalated further. Within hours of Vance leaving Pakistan, President Trump announced that the US Navy would immediately begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz, stopping all ships and intercepting any vessel on the open seas that had paid a toll to Iran.
So here is where we stand. The strait that Iran has been restricting for six weeks now has a US blockade layered on top of it. You have two opposing navies claiming authority over the same 21-mile stretch of water. The ceasefire expires on April 21st, and there is no deal and no obvious path to one.
[WHAT IT MEANS FOR BUSINESS]
So, what does this actually mean for business?
The overall impact is neutral, and that is the whole point. This was the most dramatic week since the war started, and yet your operating environment is exactly the same today as it was last Monday. Brent crude opened the week above $110 and closed Friday around $95. The strait was restricted before the ceasefire, it stayed restricted during the ceasefire, and it is still restricted now.
What moved this week was expectations, not reality.
For businesses, the mechanics have not changed. Energy costs stay elevated because the physical supply of oil and gas moving through the strait has not increased. Brent has been trading between $90 and $120 for over a month, and that range feeds directly into your diesel, jet fuel, electricity, shipping, and manufacturing inputs. Nothing moves until the strait reopens in a meaningful way. A US blockade layered on top of Iran's restrictions actually makes things harder, because commercial ships now have to navigate two military authorities instead of one.
The losers have not changed. Companies that depend on imported energy from the Gulf are still operating with input costs 40 to 60% above pre-war levels. That covers most of Asia, significant parts of Europe, and the global shipping and agricultural sectors. Airlines are burning through their fuel hedges. Manufacturers across Europe keep absorbing energy surcharges with no relief in sight. Fertilizer supply is still disrupted, pushing food prices higher across Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
The winners have not changed either. US oil producers, energy exporters outside the Gulf, defense companies, and businesses with dollar revenues and no exposure to Gulf supply chains remain in the strongest position. The US energy sector alone is up over 34% this year.
[WHAT SHOULD BUSINESS LEADERS DO NOW]
So, what to do now?
The divide right now is simple. There are companies waiting for the ceasefire to fix things, and there are companies that have already adjusted for a long disruption.
If you were holding out for a deal to bring your costs down, this week gave you your answer. No deal is coming soon. Even if fighting stops tomorrow, physically reopening the strait will take months. Mines need to be cleared, insurance needs to be restored, and over 600 vessels are backed up.
If you have been treating these elevated energy costs as temporary, it is time to stop. Lock in your supply contracts at current prices instead of hoping for a drop. Pass those cost increases through to your customers. And if your supply chain depends on anything originating in the Gulf, whether that is crude, LNG, fertilizer, or petrochemicals, make sure your alternative sources are actually contracted and ready to deliver, not just names on a contingency list.
If you are on the other side of this, the failed talks just removed the one thing keeping you cautious: the possibility of a quick deal erasing the premium. That risk is off the table for now. If you have spare production capacity outside the Gulf, invest in it while margins are wide. If you run logistics with alternative routing already in place, go to your clients and lock in long-term contracts. Right now, they need reliability far more than they need the lowest price.
[OUTRO: AMINE LAOUEDJ, MANAGING DIRECTOR]
Thank you for joining us for this episode. Have a great week.
A week of dramatic headlines and a temporary ceasefire created the illusion of a major geopolitical breakthrough. But following collapsing negotiation talks and new naval blockades, the operational reality for companies remains exactly the same, leaving the vital Strait of Hormuz restricted and energy and petrochemicals costs elevated.
In this episode of the What It Means for Business podcast, Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj explains what changed, why it matters, and what business leaders should do now.
Date of production: 13 April 2026
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