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[PART 1]
Throughout February, the United States and Iran had been holding indirect talks through Oman over Iran's uranium enrichment programme. On Thursday 26 February, both sides met in Geneva for a third round. The Omani mediator reported significant progress. Both sides agreed to continue in Vienna the following week.
However, on Saturday 28 February, the United States and Israel launched a joint military attack on Iran. They struck military installations, nuclear facilities, and government compounds across the country, killing their Supreme Leader. He is Iran's highest political and religious authority, above the president and all other institutions. President Trump stated the objective was regime change.
Iran responded within hours, firing missiles at US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, at targets inside Israel, and at civilian infrastructure across the Gulf. Multiple regional states closed their airspace. Dubai shut both its airports. Emirates and Qatar Airways grounded their fleets.
At Friday's close, before the strikes, Brent crude stood at just over $72 a barrel.
[PART 2]
So what does this mean for business? The impact is negative for most, and the uncertainty is extreme.
Start from the geography. Iran sits on the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 20% of the world's oil flows through that waterway every day. Missiles are now flying across it. So when oil markets reopen, they will price the risk that this flow could be interrupted. And that means a sharp move upward in energy costs.
Now here is why that matters beyond the price of a barrel.
Higher oil costs travel through supply chains. They raise the cost of shipping, of running factories, of producing anything that requires heat, transport, or chemical inputs. They also raise the cost of fertilizer, which means food prices follow.
And because all of this pushes inflation higher, central banks lose the ability to cut interest rates. Here is why. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, cheaper borrowing means more spending, and more spending when prices are already climbing makes inflation worse. So central banks are stuck. And that means borrowing costs stay elevated at the same time that input costs are rising.
On top of that, conflict of this scale drives capital toward the US dollar as a safe haven. That strengthens the dollar and weakens every other currency. So if you run a European manufacturer or you export from India or Southeast Asia, your costs are rising in dollar terms while your revenue is shrinking when converted back. That is a double compression on margins.
Now, who is most exposed?
If your operations depend on Gulf infrastructure, you have an immediate problem. Dubai as a cargo hub, Gulf-based aviation, construction, hospitality, professional services, all of that is frozen, and there is no reopening date.
Beyond the Gulf, the most vulnerable economies are net energy importers with no domestic cushion. Europe and Japan above all. If you run an energy-intensive business in those regions, chemicals, steel, glass, food processing, your cost base is about to shift.
Not everyone loses.
If you are an oil producer outside the conflict zone, in Norway, Brazil, Canada, or the United States, the product you sell just became dramatically more valuable. And if you operate a logistics hub in Singapore or Istanbul, you are about to absorb rerouted traffic from the Gulf.
Here is the question that matters most right now. How long does this last.
In 1979, the Iranian Revolution doubled oil prices and triggered a global recession that lasted years. The Iran-Iraq war lasted eight. Wars in this region, once they start, tend to last far longer than anyone initially expects. And this one, with regime change as its stated objective, has every characteristic of following that pattern.
So the instinct will be to wait. To absorb the cost increases, hold off on decisions, and hope the situation resolves quickly. But every week of absorbing higher input costs without acting erodes margin. So the businesses that come through this in the best shape will be the ones that plan now as if the disruption is structural. Because if it turns out to be shorter, you adjust easily. But if you assumed short and it lasts, the damage compounds.

In each episode, we break down the key global economic event that shaped the past seven days and analyze what it means for business.

In this episode: US and Israel Strike Iran. With Glenshore's Managing Director Amine Laouedj.

Date of recording: 2 March 2026

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